As one of Singapore’s most prestigious SAP schools, Tao Nan Primary attracts tremendous interest from parents. Our comprehensive analysis of 2022-2024 admission data reveals crucial trends to help you navigate the competitive application process for the 2026 Primary 1 intake.
This definitive guide covers:
✔️ Phase-by-phase competitiveness analysis
✔️ Historical balloting patterns by priority group
✔️ Actionable strategies tailored to your profile
✔️ Expert predictions for 2025 admissions
Understanding Priority Groups
First, familiarize yourself with these key admission categories:
| Code | Definition |
|---|---|
| SC<1 | Singapore Citizens living <1km |
| SC1-2 | Singapore Citizens living 1-2km |
| SC>2 | Singapore Citizens living >2km |
| PR<1 | Permanent Residents living <1km |
| PR1-2 | Permanent Residents living 1-2km |
| PR>2 | Permanent Residents living >2km |
| # | Special cases (context-dependent) |
Admission Odds (2022–2024 Data)
Applicant-to-Vacancy Ratios
How competitive is your phase?
- Example: 100 applicants for 50 spots → 100 ÷ 50 = 2.0:1 (balloting likely).
- Low ratio (e.g., 0.5:1): No balloting (fewer applicants than spots).
| Phase | 2022 Ratio | 2023 Ratio | 2024 Ratio | Balloting History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phase 1 | 0.55:1 | 0.61:1 | 0.40:1 | Never balloted |
| 2A(1) | 0.93:1 | 1.18:1 | 0.82:1 | Never balloted |
| 2B | 2.65:1 | 3.40:1 | 2.00:1 | SC<1 (all years) |
| 2C | 2.11:1 | 2.32:1 | 1.30:1 | SC<1 (all years) |
| Phase 3 | 0:1 | 0:1 | 0:1 | No vacancies since 2022 |
Ratio Interpretation Guide:
- Below 1.0: More vacancies than applicants → Guaranteed admission
- 1.0-1.5: Moderately competitive → Possible balloting
- Above 1.5: Highly competitive → Balloting certain
Phase-by-Phase Deep Dive
1. Phase 1 (Alumni Children)
- 2024 Ratio: 0.40:1 (safest phase)
- Trend: Improving competitiveness
- Strategy: Absolute priority if eligible
2. 2A(1) (Parent/Sibling Alumni)
- Key Insight: Ratio improved from 1.18:1 (2023) to 0.82:1 (2024)
- Balloting Note: Never balloted but monitor 2A(1) in 2025
- Strategy: Second-best option after Phase 1
3. 2B (Community/Parent Volunteers)
- Competitiveness: Most volatile phase (2.65:1 to 3.40:1)
- 2024 Improvement: Ratio dropped to 2.00:1
- Critical Note: Only SC<1 applicants considered
4. 2C (General Public)
- Positive Trend: Ratio improved from 2.32:1 (2023) to 1.30:1 (2024)
- Reality Check: Still requires balloting for SC<1
- Strategic Window: Best odds in 3 years
5. Phase 3 (PR/International)
- Hard Truth: No vacancies since 2022
- 2025 Outlook: Extremely unlikely to open
Tailored Application Strategies
For SC<1 Families:
✅ Phase 1: 100% success rate
✅ 2A(1): Safe bet (0.82:1 in 2024)
⚠️ 2B: Prepare for balloting (2.00:1)
⚠️ 2C: Improving but still competitive
For SC1-2 Families:
✅ Phase 1/2A(1): Only viable options
❌ 2B/2C: Not available to you
For PR Families:
❌ All Phases: No realistic pathways
5 Pro Tips for 2025 Applicants
- Alumni Advantage: Maximize Phase 1/2A(1) opportunities first
- Volunteer Smart: For 2B, complete requirements 1+ year early
- Distance Matters: SC<1 status is golden for 2B/2C
- Monitor 2A(1): Could become competitive if ratios rise
- Backup Plan: Identify alternative schools early
2025 Admission Predictions
- Phase 1: Will remain the safest route
- 2A(1): May see increased interest
- 2B: Likely to stabilize around 2.0:1 ratio
- 2C: Could maintain improved 1.3:1 ratio
- Phase 3: Will almost certainly remain closed
Strategic Insight: Tao Nan’s 2C phase has shown the most significant improvement, making 2025 potentially the best year in recent times for SC<1 applicants in this phase.
Key Takeaways
✔️ Alumni-related phases offer near-guaranteed admission
✔️ 2B remains highly competitive but improved in 2024
✔️ 2C presents the best public phase opportunity in years
✔️ Non-citizens have no viable pathways
✔️ Early planning is absolutely critical
Final Advice: If you’re SC<1, apply through Phase 1 or 2A(1) before attempting competitive phases. For all others, focus on improving your priority status through alumni connections or strategic relocation.
With careful planning and strategic timing, you can maximize your chances at Tao Nan Primary! 🎓